Computer-based models play a significant role in making informed decisions about water allocation, water quality investments, and evaluating the impacts of industry development on water resources. There is a need to incorporate both existing climate variability and future climate change into water models to enhance planning and management assessments and bolster the state's capacity to manage its water resources effectively under changing climate conditions.

Under the Queensland Water Modelling Network’s Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) portfolio, Alluvium Consulting, in partnership with the University of Newcastle and CSIRO, was commissioned to undertake a ‘Critical review of climate change in Queensland water models.’ This included an understanding of the stakeholder needs, state of the science, state of the modelling and future investment needs in order to improve our understanding of existing climate variability and future climate change in Queensland’s water models.

The report discusses the limitations of using existing climate records, which may not fully capture the range of variability, and highlights the importance of considering longer-term droughts and more severe wetter periods Through this work, several areas for improvement were identified, including the need for better representation of climate variability in models, utilisation of new datasets, and development of a future investment plan to address knowledge and capacity gaps. We proposed a multiple lines of evidence approach that includes inputs from modellers, decision-makers, scientists, and practitioners. This involves reviewing current modelling practices, assessing stakeholder needs, and developing a strategic investment portfolio to improve water modelling delivery in Queensland.

Following this work, an evaluation guideline was developed to help assess the readiness of water models to account for or incorporate climate change in their use.

More information

Report: Critical review of climate change and water modelling in Queensland

Evaluation guideline: Making our water models climate change ready: Are they up to the task?